Google Quantum Computer Finally Beat Error Rates. Only Took 10 Years.

Google announced they achieved “below-threshold” error correction in their quantum computer. Translation: they can now fix errors faster than they accumulate.

This is huge. Also, we’re still decades from useful quantum computers.

The error problem has haunted quantum computing since day one. Qubits are fragile. They decohere—lose their quantum state—from vibration, temperature fluctuations, cosmic rays, basically everything. Every operation introduces errors. You need to correct errors faster than they appear or your computation collapses into noise.

Google’s milestone: their new Willow chip maintains quantum coherence longer as they add more qubits. That’s backwards from every previous quantum computer, where more qubits meant more errors.

I talked to a quantum physicist who’s been working on error correction for 15 years. She literally cried when the paper dropped. “We’ve been saying this was possible for years. Nobody believed us.”

Here’s why this doesn’t mean quantum supremacy is here: Google’s experiment ran for seconds. Useful quantum algorithms might need hours or days. Scaling from seconds to hours means solving error correction at scales nobody’s attempted yet.

IBM’s quantum team, predictably, said Google’s milestone doesn’t matter because their approach is fundamentally different. “We’re focused on practical quantum advantage, not academic milestones.”

Translation: “We haven’t achieved this yet and we’re salty about it.”

The real question is: when does any of this matter to anyone outside quantum labs?

D-Wave has been selling “quantum computers” for years. Technically quantum. Practically questionable. Most researchers don’t even consider D-Wave’s quantum annealers “real” quantum computers. They solve specific optimization problems but can’t run arbitrary quantum algorithms.

IonQ, Rigetti, and other quantum startups promise commercial quantum computing soon. “Soon” keeps sliding right. Five years ago, they said useful quantum computers were 5 years away. Today? Still 5 years away.

I asked a quantum computing skeptic—yes, they exist—when we’d see practical quantum computers. He laughed. “Best case? 2040. More likely? Never. We might hit physical limits before we hit useful scales.”

That’s harsh but not impossible. Maybe quantum computing is like fusion power: perpetually 20 years away.

The applications are real, though. Drug discovery, materials science, cryptography, optimization—these fields would transform if quantum computing delivered. Simulating molecular interactions accurately requires quantum computers. Classical computers just can’t do it.

But here’s the cruel economics: building a quantum computer costs hundreds of millions. Google’s probably spent billions across their quantum program. The payoff? Academic papers and press releases.

IBM’s quantum program is similar. Huge investment, no revenue. They give away quantum compute time hoping to build an ecosystem. Eventually, they’ll need to monetize or shut down.

A startup called Atom Computing raised $60 million to build neutral atom quantum computers. I asked their CEO when they’d hit profitability. Long pause. “We’re focused on technology development right now.”

That’s startup speak for “we have no idea how to make money from this.”

The cryptography angle terrifies people. Quantum computers will break current encryption. Eventually. Probably. Maybe. The NSA is already pushing quantum-resistant algorithms because they assume quantum codebreaking is coming.

When? Nobody knows. Could be 2035. Could be 2060. Could be never if we hit scaling walls.

Meanwhile, we’re in this weird limbo where quantum computing is real enough to publish papers about but not real enough to do anything useful with.

Google’s error correction milestone is genuine progress. It moves quantum computing from “physically impossible” to “merely extremely difficult.” That’s not nothing.

But anyone expecting quantum computers to solve real problems soon is going to be disappointed. We just moved from “never” to “maybe eventually.”

I’ll check back in 2035.